The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1] is a book. It is also part of a deep, historical theory of re-occurring societal trends. The book was written by historians and demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe[2]. Surprisingly, it has been on various best-seller lists for the past several years but was written in 1997! In it, Strauss and Howe present some startling predictions for society over the next 4 to 9 years as great change happens all around us.

As we progress through this predicted period of "Crisis," successful fundraising will be challenging and necessarily different.  No one knows precisely what is going to happen but we have enough information from historical cycles ( discussed in the quick summary of the book) to glean an idea of what the challenges might be for the fundraising sector and how we can strategize to best prepare for the eventual unfolding.

 In three parts, this article will summarize the main concepts of the book and then try to answer the question – what has this got to do with fundraising? How can we plan for our charitable organizations to survive, and even thrive, in what has been predicted to be very difficult times ahead?

Why is a book written in 1997 so popular today?

The Fourth Turning is a scholarly pursuit of the historical theory of multi-generational, societal cycles or eras which repeat themselves every 80 to 100 years with astounding precision. The authors take us back to pre-Roman, Etruscan times and trace the many re-occurring cycles of history, right up to the present time.

They challenge the reader to look beyond our 21^st century "linear" thinking in which society’s evolution is thought to be ever-growing, always getting better year after year. Such linear thinking is readily accepted in the areas of economics, governance, culture and really, all aspects of society; however, as the authors show, history tells a vary different tale.

Linear thinking has been strengthened by the tremendous influence of technology and science on our society. Every year we learn more, discover more, invent more, and supposedly get better. But modern society is much more than technological and scientific advancements. There are very clear "rhythms" and cycles in history. The authors note that history doesn’t always exactly repeat itself but it does indeed rhyme with pattern.

According to Strauss and Howe, society moves through distinct generational cycles with consistent characteristics, and does so with uncanny predictability. Focusing on Anglo-American history of the last 500 years, the authors lay out the characteristics of the four "turnings" in every 80 to 100-year cycle.